As a result of the fact that a new circumstance has arisen during this season, nothing can be taken for granted just yet. The season for hurricanes is not yet close to coming to an end. In point of fact, forecasters report that a system in the Caribbean has the potential to intensify into Hurricane Sara during the next week.
System Movements
There is a high degree of uncertainty over the course that this system will take in the Gulf of Mexico until the end of November. Nobody was expecting these words to be made, therefore they came as a complete surprise.
According to a statement made by the National Hurricane Centre on Tuesday, the organization is now monitoring a tropical wave that is located in the middle Caribbean Sea and is causing “an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.”
The Development of the Environmental Conditions
In accordance with the hurricane center, the environmental conditions appear to be favorable for the development of the wave, and it is quite probable that a tropical depression will form during the next two to three days.
During this time, the system will be traveling in a western direction toward the western Caribbean Sea in a gradual and steady manner.
“Invest 99L” Naming
As of Tuesday afternoon, the hurricane center referred to the storm as “Invest 99L.” It is anticipated that the system will start moving slowly in a north-westerly direction by the beginning of the next week.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), “Interests across the western Caribbean Sea should look for the progress of this system,” and it was given a probability of formation of ninety percent during the next seven days following its creation.
The System Direction. Could it be like Hurricane Sara?
Some computer models predict that Hurricane Sara will develop into a full-fledged storm in the Gulf of Mexico the following week. These models indicate that there is a wide range of possibilities regarding the eventual power and path of the system.
According to AccuWeather, the presence of storm-killing wind shear at the beginning of the process will have the tendency to inhibit any developing feature in the Caribbean Sea from moving northward from its base.
Furthermore, “nevertheless, the natural blocking mechanism might be able to dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move northward,” said Alex Sosnowski, a meteorologist who is a part of AccuWeather.
In this scenario, those who have interests in South Florida and the Keys may need to remain vigilant and remain vigilant.
A slow journey into Central America is one of the other possible routes; in the meantime, some people are considering a route that would take them away from the United States and away into the Atlantic Ocean.
November Hurricane Forecast Exposes More Storms Could Come After Rafael
In a comment made to USA TODAY last week, Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, stated that by the time the season is getting late, conditions are looking “conducive for another storm or two.”
Rafael Incoming to Cuba
On Wednesday, Rafael made landfall in western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane. It struck the province of Artemisa with sustained gusts of up to 115 miles per hour, which caused the island’s electrical grid to become disrupted.
At the same time as the core of Rafael was moving into the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center reported that certain regions of western Cuba were experiencing “life-threatening storm surge” and flash floods. This information was provided on Wednesday evening.
Not Common Season: The Activity Is Also Unpredictable
Already, this season has been one of the most busy to date. Simply by looking at the fact that there are 17 named storms that are currently forming, which is higher than the normal of 14, it is clear that this is not a typical season.
When the devastating Hurricanes Helene and Milton are taken into account, 11 of those 17 storms that were recorded were classified as hurricanes.
Even though hurricanes might occasionally appear in December, the official end of hurricane season is announced to be the 30th of November.
Despite the fact that there are no “smoking gun” signs at this time, the large-scale forecast appears to be very favorable for the development of more tropical cyclone activity beyond Rafael. As Klotzbach explained it.
According to him, the characteristics of the global climate, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are favorable to the development of the storm.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the MJO is a disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that moves in an easterly direction and travels across the world in the tropics.
It returns to its initial beginning point thirty to sixty days after it has completed its journey.